--- title: "PredictIt Review 2026: Fees, Withdrawals, and How It Compares to Kalshi" url: https://altstreet.investments/platforms/reviews/predictit kind: platform-review updated: 2026-11-11 description: "PredictIt review 2026: CFTC staff no-action relief, not an exchange; member cash at an unnamed bank; 10% profit fee vs Kalshi; discretionary settlement; thin books outside the 2028 markets." publisher: AltStreet (https://altstreet.investments) license: Public factual pages may be read, quoted and cited with attribution and a link. Bulk redistribution is not permitted. --- # PredictIt Review 2026: Fees, Withdrawals, and How It Compares to Kalshi PredictIt charges 10% of the profit on every winning share and, since September 23, 2026, nothing on standard withdrawals from active accounts. Its operator, Aristotle International, holds member cash at a bank the Terms do not name and keeps the interest. Trading is thin outside three 2028 presidential markets, which held 79.6% of the lifetime shares traded in the 150 open markets on November 11, 2026, when 104 markets had yet to trade. PredictIt is a political trading venue, not an investment, and it runs on CFTC staff no-action relief rather than an exchange registration. AltStreet score: 36.8 (C-), scored November 11, 2026. Method: https://altstreet.investments/platforms | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Platform | PredictIt | | What it is | Political Prediction Market under CFTC Staff No-Action Relief | | Asset class | Prediction Markets: $1-face political event contracts | | Website | predictit.org | | Review first published | November 11, 2026 | | Last updated | November 11, 2026 | | AltStreet relationship | None: no affiliate, sponsorship or partnership | ## The short version What it costs: PredictIt takes 10% of the profit on every winning share and nothing on losing trades. At a 50c price that needs 2.63 points of edge to break even, against 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding; until September 23, 2026 a 5% withdrawal fee raised PredictIt's figure to 5.40. Since that date standard withdrawals from active accounts are free. Who holds the money: Aristotle International, Inc., as 'Clearing House', holds member deposits 'on trust' in a pooled account at 'a registered bank' that the Terms do not name, keeps the interest and may pass it to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC), the not-for-profit that holds the market's regulatory relief; AltStreet located no deposit-insurance statement, segregation regime or balance attestation. What the market looks like (PredictIt public API, November 11, 2026): 150 open markets and 533 contracts, 67.0% of contracts last traded at 5c or less, 79.6% of lifetime shares traded sitting in three 2028 presidential markets, and 104 markets yet to trade when AltStreet checked, around noon Eastern. Front-runners were priced within 1 to 3c of Kalshi and Polymarket; PredictIt's YES ask was above Kalshi's on 39 of 45 matched 2028 candidate contracts in that snapshot, a gap the 1c tick, the 10% fee and the unpaid interest on locked capital leave in place. How it settles: at PredictIt's 'sole discretion', with findings 'final' and no clause for voiding a market and refunding stakes. What it is: a venue for trading $1-face yes/no contracts on political questions, not an investment, operating since November 3, 2014 under CFTC staff no-action relief rather than an exchange registration (the letters, the 2022 to 2025 fight over them and the pending exchange application are in the regulation section). The honest uses for an alternative investor are narrow: hedging a political or policy exposure, capped at $3,500 per contract, and reading front-runner prices as information. - **10% of profit** PredictIt's only trading fee, charged on winning shares and not on losers; standard withdrawals from active accounts free since September 23, 2026 (5% before). The relief it runs under is a CFTC staff no-action letter, not an exchange designation. - **Bank unnamed** Aristotle International holds member cash 'on trust' in a pooled account at 'a registered bank'; the Terms do not name the bank, and the Clearing House keeps the interest (Terms 6.iii, read November 11, 2026). - **2.63 pts** Edge a buyer at 50c needs to break even after PredictIt's 10% profit fee, against 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding; 5.40 before PredictIt dropped its 5% withdrawal fee on September 23, 2026 (derived). - **79.6%** Share of lifetime shares traded in PredictIt's 150 open markets held by the three 2028 presidential markets; 104 markets had yet to trade when AltStreet checked, around noon Eastern on November 11, 2026 (PredictIt public API, AltStreet census). - **39 of 45** Matched 2028 candidate contracts where PredictIt's YES ask was above Kalshi's on November 11, 2026, 16:45 UTC, one snapshot; front-runners agreed within 1 to 3c (PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs). - **Oct 13, 2026** Deadline in House Oversight's September 29, 2026 letter for a staff briefing and seven categories of documents on insider-trading safeguards; no response located as of November 11, 2026. Data note: Market figures are AltStreet's aggregates from PredictIt's public API, from one snapshot on November 11, 2026 at the times stated; prices move and these are not a time series. Source: PredictIt. PredictIt's FAQ says of the API, 'This data is for non-commercial use and PredictIt shall be attributed as the source'; AltStreet attributes PredictIt wherever a figure appears, publishes only the aggregates computed for this review, and does not redistribute the feed. Breakeven figures are derived from the published fee rules (PredictIt's 10% profit fee; Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding) and ignore the bid-ask spread. No PredictIt entity publishes financial statements, user counts or customer-balance attestations. ## Key figures | Figure | What it is | Context | | --- | --- | --- | | No-action | A staff position with conditions, protected by a court judgment, not a designation as an exchange. | The market runs under CFTC staff no-action relief (Letters 14-130 and 25-20), not an exchange registration. Relief issued to PMRC; withdrawal letters vacated July 22, 2025; PredictIt Exchange DCM application pending since October 5, 2026. | | Bank unnamed | Member cash held 'on trust' by Aristotle in a pooled account at 'a registered bank'. | Interest kept by the Clearing House and payable to PMRC; no insurance statement or attestation located (Terms, November 11, 2026). | | 2.63 pts | Edge needed to break even buying at 50c after PredictIt's 10% profit fee. | 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding; 5.40 on PredictIt before September 23, 2026 (derived). | | 79.6% | Share of lifetime shares traded in open markets held by three 2028 presidential markets. | 104 of 150 markets had yet to trade when AltStreet checked, around noon Eastern on November 11, 2026 (PredictIt public API, AltStreet census). | ## Verdict PredictIt is a twelve-year-old political market that survived the CFTC's attempt to close it and now runs on staff no-action relief held by a not-for-profit and operated by a private company. It is not an investment. The costs a member carries beyond the 10% profit fee are structural: cash held by the operator at a bank it does not name, with the interest kept; settlement at the operator's discretion; and thin books outside the 2028 markets, where longshots price above Kalshi and Polymarket. Its uses for an alternative investor are a capped hedge on a political outcome and a read of the odds on front-runners. **Best for** - US investors hedging a specific political or policy outcome within $3,500 per contract. - Readers who want a second price on leading candidates. **Look elsewhere if** - You need to know which bank holds your cash. - You need a registered exchange and clearinghouse. - You are looking for income or a trading edge. **Strengths** - A court judgment of July 22, 2025 protecting the market against closure on facts known then. - No fee on losing trades; standard withdrawals free since September 23, 2026. - Front-runner prices within 1 to 3c of Kalshi and Polymarket on November 11, 2026. - Rules, rule clarifications and a public market-data API published. **Limitations** - Staff no-action relief, not an exchange registration; no clearinghouse or customer-funds regime. - Member cash at an unnamed bank, interest kept by the operator, no attestation. - Discretionary, final settlement with mid-market rule clarifications and no refund clause. - Thin books outside three 2028 markets; longshots priced higher than on Kalshi. - No financial statements from any entity; House Oversight letter unanswered as far as located. ## Who it fits | Investor | Fit | Why | | --- | --- | --- | | Investors hedging a specific political or policy outcome | neutral | | | Readers using prices as information | neutral | | | Traders looking for an edge | poor-fit | | | Anyone seeking income or an investment | poor-fit | | ## Questions **Is PredictIt legal?** PredictIt operates under CFTC staff no-action relief (Letter 14-130 of 2014 as amended by Letter 25-20 of July 14, 2025), and a federal court vacated the CFTC's 2022 and 2023 attempts to withdraw it on July 22, 2025. That relief is a staff position that enforcement will not be recommended if conditions are met, not a registration as an exchange, and it does not address state law. AltStreet located no enforcement action or pending suit naming PredictIt as of November 11, 2026. **Is PredictIt regulated by the CFTC?** Not in the way Kalshi is. PredictIt's Terms say it 'is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with' the CFTC. It runs under conditions set by CFTC staff (a $3,500 per-contract cap tied to the federal contribution limit, political events only, compliance with staff requests), but it is not a designated exchange and has no registered clearinghouse. A separate company, PredictIt Exchange DCM, Inc., applied to become a designated exchange; the application was listed as pending on October 5, 2026. **Who holds my money on PredictIt, and is it FDIC insured?** Aristotle International holds deposits 'on trust' in a pooled 'Clearing Account' at 'a registered bank', with a separate ledger for each member. The Terms do not name the bank, and AltStreet located no statement on deposit insurance and no attestation of balances. The interest on the account belongs to Aristotle, which may pay it to PMRC. Withdrawals wait 30 days after a deposit. **What are PredictIt's fees?** 10% of profit on any share sold above cost or redeemed at $1, and nothing on losing trades. Card deposits cost 3%. Since September 23, 2026, ACH deposits and standard withdrawals are free; before that PredictIt took 5% of every withdrawal. Inactive accounts pay $2.00 a month and 5% on withdrawal. At a 50c price the 10% fee requires 2.63 points of edge to break even, against 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding (derived; spreads ignored). **What is the PredictIt $3,500 limit?** The most one person can invest in any one contract. Letter 25-20 sets it at the federal individual campaign contribution limit 'as that limit is adjusted going forward', $3,500 at issue in July 2025; the FEC adjusts that limit every two years. The limit is per contract, so a member can hold up to $3,500 in each contract of a multi-contract market. Before July 2025 it was $850. **Can you make money on PredictIt?** Some members do, but it is a zero-sum market: every winner is matched by a loser, and PredictIt takes 10% of each profit. Research on 2016 to 2022 data found persistent overpricing of longshots and of multi-outcome markets, and a more recent small sample found none. Correcting a gap pays little in any case: in a scenario on November 11, 2026, buying NO on a longshot at PredictIt's ask, with Kalshi's midpoint taken as the probability, offered about 2.8% expected over about 21 months at the $3,500 cap, with no interest on the cash. **How long does PredictIt take to settle a market?** PredictIt says review 'usually takes less than 48 hours', but election markets wait for certification, recounts and court rulings at PredictIt's discretion. The 2020 Iowa caucus market traded until April 14, 2020, 71 days after the caucus; the 2020 presidential market until December 18, 2020; the 2024 candidate market until December 17, 2024. PredictIt's decision is final, and disputes go to arbitration. **Did Underdog buy PredictIt?** The CFTC record shows that Aristotle's separate exchange, Aristotle Exchange DCM and Aristotle Exchange DCO, now carries the Underdog name; the clearinghouse is listed as 'Underdog Clearinghouse, Inc.', 'Formerly known as Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc.'. That exchange was never the predictit.org market, which still runs under the no-action relief held by PMRC. The terms of the Underdog sale appear only in press reports. **PredictIt vs Kalshi: what is the difference?** Kalshi is a CFTC-designated exchange with its own registered clearinghouse, a named bank and monthly FCM statements, and charges a taker fee on entry. PredictIt runs under staff no-action relief, its operator holds member cash at an unnamed bank, it charges 10% of profit on winners, and it caps each contract at $3,500. On November 11, 2026 their prices on the 2028 front-runners were within 1 to 3c; PredictIt's longshots were higher on 39 of 45 matched contracts. **How are PredictIt winnings taxed?** PredictIt's FAQ says it issues a Form 1099 to US traders with net profit of $600 or more in a calendar year, computed as gross profits less losses and trading fees. The IRS raised the threshold for certain information-reporting payments to $2,000 for 2026, and PredictIt has not said which form or threshold it will apply for 2026. How the gains are characterized is a question for a tax adviser. ## Update history **November 11, 2026: Published after owner pass 1** First publication. The owner's pass narrowed the longshot conclusion to the snapshot (bids and asks shown for five matched contracts; the Beshear sum labeled a scenario), put the fee assumptions beside every breakeven figure, took the card-fee waiver wording from the September 23, 2026 announcement, attributed the $600 tax threshold to PredictIt's FAQ with the 2026 IRS change noted, led the first screen with the fee, withdrawals, the unnamed bank and thin trading, moved the CFTC history to the regulation section and changed 'no trades' to 'yet to trade when AltStreet checked'. ## Evidence appendix Platform website captured November 11, 2026. CFTC letters, orders and listings; the Fifth Circuit and W.D. Tex. records; EDGAR; the House Oversight letter; PredictIt's Terms, Privacy Policy, FAQ, help, Learn, Research and announcement pages through the site's content endpoints; market rules and comments through the public API; one market-data snapshot, a contract-statistics census and a cross-venue snapshot on November 11, 2026 (source: PredictIt, attributed per its FAQ; aggregates only); seven research papers; CFPB and BBB complaint records. **Highlights** - Terms: 'PredictIt is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with' the CFTC. Letter 25-20: PMRC 'shall comply with all requests from CFTC staff'. - Terms: PMRC is 'a body of outside academic advisors'. Letter 25-20: 'a US-based not-for-profit corporation that has applied to the IRS for recognition' under 501(c)(3). - Terms: a limit 'of $3,500'. Letter 25-20: the FECA limit 'as that limit is adjusted going forward'. - Market 9087 rule, rechecked November 11, 2026 17:05 UTC: a single-state race call whose rule refers to 'the winner of U.S. Senate control'. **Primary source pages** - CFTC Letter 14-130 (October 29, 2014) and Letter 25-20 (July 14, 2025), cftc.gov/csl. - Clarke v. CFTC, W.D. Tex. 1:24-cv-00614, Dkt. 139 (July 22, 2025); 5th Cir. 22-51124 opinion (July 21, 2023). - PredictIt Terms and Conditions, How to Trade and FAQ, predictit.org, read November 11, 2026. - PredictIt public API: api/marketdata/all (16:41 UTC), api/Market/{id}/Contracts/Stats (16:48 to 17:01 UTC), api/Market/9087 (17:05 UTC), November 11, 2026. - CFTC Trading Organizations entry 66541 (PredictIT Exchange DCM, Inc., Pending, 2026-10-05) and its posted exhibits. - House Oversight letter to John Aristotle Phillips, September 29, 2026. - EDGAR Form D, PredictIt, Inc., accession 0001695164-17-000001 (January 20, 2017). ## Related - Full review (HTML): https://altstreet.investments/platforms/reviews/predictit - Every platform review: https://altstreet.investments/platforms/reviews - Methodology and scoring: https://altstreet.investments/platforms - Category hub: https://altstreet.investments/categories/prediction-markets-event-contracts --- Source page: https://altstreet.investments/platforms/reviews/predictit Machine index: https://altstreet.investments/llms.txt AltStreet reads what platforms, funds and issuers file with the SEC and what they tell investors, and publishes the difference. Figures are as filed or as captured on the date stated; nothing here is investment advice.