Can returns on completed cases overstate a litigation portfolio's results?

Yes, especially early. Cases that settle quickly tend to finish first and often on good terms, while long, contested and losing cases finish later. A concluded-case return measured early therefore reflects the easier cases. AltStreet's LexShares review found its 47% median net IRR marketed at the Fund II launch was calculated on resolved cases when the easiest winners had resolved early; Fund I tracked about 4% net IRR on resolved cases by the third quarter of 2025.

What do Burford's concluded-case metrics show?

An 81% ROIC and a 25% IRR on concluded and partially concluded balance-sheet assets since inception at September 30, 2026, on $4.01 billion of realizations across 303 assets. These exclude pending assets and fair value changes, so they do not reflect the YPF write-down in 2026, which affected capital provision assets that had not concluded.

What do Omni Bridgeway's figures show?

A 2.4x gross multiple on 822 completed investments at June 30, 2026, excluding the 12 investments over A$20 million, which returned 1.54x, per AltStreet's review. The review notes that 'much of the current book is unfinished: investments made in FY2022 to FY2026 are 0% to 37% complete by vintage,' so the completed record covers older, mostly smaller investments.

How large can the selection effect be?

In the worked example below, four concluded cases show an 87.5% return on invested capital after three years, while the full ten-case portfolio ends at 1.35x after six. Same funder, same underwriting; the difference is which cases had finished when the number was reported.

Why do funders report concluded-case returns at all?

Because they are the only returns not based on estimates. Pending cases have no final result, so concluded-case figures are factual about what has happened. The problem is reading them as a forecast for the whole portfolio. Burford itself notes that 'as our older vintages conclude, we may see IRR decrease.'

What should an investor ask for?

Returns on all capital deployed by vintage, including the fair value of pending cases and realized losses; the share of each vintage that has concluded; durations of concluded and pending cases; and, for any headline concluded-case figure, the date and the number of cases behind it.

Concluded-Case vs Portfolio Returns

Litigation Finance & Legal Claims

Definition

Concluded-case returns measure only the cases that have finished; portfolio returns measure all capital invested, including pending cases, losses still to come and the time money has waited. Burford's return metrics on its concluded portfolio 'do not include fair value adjustments, either positive or negative' and include a case only when 'there is no longer any litigation risk remaining.' The gap between the two can be large early in a fund's life.

Why it matters

Concluded-case returns are real, but they are a biased sample of a litigation portfolio until most of it has finished. Quick wins conclude first, losses and long disputes later, and large cases can be excluded or reported separately. AltStreet's reviews show the pattern repeatedly: a 47% marketed IRR on resolved LexShares cases against about 4% later, Omni Bridgeway's completed multiple excluding its largest investments, and Burford's concluded metrics standing apart from its YPF write-down. For an investor, the honest comparison is all capital, by vintage, including pending cases at a stated value. Ask for that, and treat any concluded-case headline as the start of the analysis.

Common misconceptions

•Concluded-case returns are not portfolio returns, because they leave out pending cases, future losses and the time capital has waited.
•Early track records are not representative, because quick wins conclude first.
•Excluding large cases is not neutral, because Omni Bridgeway's 12 largest completed investments returned 1.54x against 2.4x for the rest.
•A concluded-case IRR is not immune to later results, because Burford expects IRR may decrease as older vintages conclude.
•Gross concluded multiples are not investor returns, because fees, carry and fund expenses come out before investors are paid.

Technical details

Worked example (illustrative): ten cases, two dates

Ten cases of $1.0 million each.

Year 3: four have concluded: three quick wins at 2.5x ($7.5 million) and one loss. Concluded ROIC: ($7.5 million - $4.0 million) / $4.0 million = 87.5%.

Year 6: the other six conclude: three win at 2.0x ($6.0 million), three lose.

Portfolio: $13.5 million on $10.0 million, 1.35x over six years.

The year-3 concluded figure was accurate and still overstated the portfolio's result.

What each measure includes

Concluded-case ROIC or IRR: finished (and partly finished) cases only; no fair value changes.

Completed-investment multiple: completed cases, sometimes with exclusions.

Portfolio or fund return: all capital, pending cases at fair value, realized losses.

Net fund return: after fees, carry and expenses.

Vintage view: each year's commitments followed to conclusion.

What AltStreet's reviews and filings show

Burford's Form 10-Q for September 30, 2026 reports an 81% ROIC and a 25% IRR on its concluded and partially concluded balance-sheet assets since inception, on $4.01 billion of cumulative realizations across 303 concluded assets, with a weighted average life of 2.7 years weighted by realizations; returns 'do not include fair value adjustments.'

AltStreet's Omni Bridgeway review (October 31, 2026) reports the company's own figures: 2.4x gross on 822 completed investments at June 30, 2026, unaudited and before fees, excluding the 12 investments over A$20 million, which returned 1.54x; 179 of the 822 lost, recovering 0.15x; FY2022 to FY2026 investments are 0% to 37% complete by vintage.

AltStreet's LexShares review (updated August 19, 2026) contrasts a 47% median net IRR marketed at the Fund II launch with roughly 4% net IRR on Fund I's resolved cases, and found carry charged deal by deal.

Burford 10-Q (September 30, 2026): gross realized losses 4.2% of average cost (annualized) for the nine months against 3.1% for 2025, including a single $19.1 million loss.

Questions about reported returns

Is this return on concluded cases or on all capital?

What share of each vintage has concluded?

Are any cases excluded, and how did they perform?

Is it gross or net of fees and carry?

What are the returns by vintage, including pending cases at fair value?

How investors apply the term

Investors usually apply this term by tying the definition back to the controlling documents and then asking which cash flows, rights, restrictions, or valuation assumptions it changes. A useful review looks at the term alongside fees, leverage, liquidity, reporting frequency, and manager discretion rather than treating it as a standalone concept.

The practical diligence test is simple: identify who benefits if the assumption is wrong, who has control when conditions change, and what evidence the investor receives after closing. Terms that cannot be reconciled to documents, cash movements, and monitoring data should be treated as marketing shorthand until proven otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

Can returns on completed cases overstate a litigation portfolio's results?: Yes, especially early. Cases that settle quickly tend to finish first and often on good terms, while long, contested and losing cases finish later. A concluded-case return measured early therefore reflects the easier cases. AltStreet's LexShares review found its 47% median net IRR marketed at the Fund II launch was calculated on resolved cases when the easiest winners had resolved early; Fund I tracked about 4% net IRR on resolved cases by the third quarter of 2025.
What do Burford's concluded-case metrics show?: An 81% ROIC and a 25% IRR on concluded and partially concluded balance-sheet assets since inception at September 30, 2026, on $4.01 billion of realizations across 303 assets. These exclude pending assets and fair value changes, so they do not reflect the YPF write-down in 2026, which affected capital provision assets that had not concluded.
What do Omni Bridgeway's figures show?: A 2.4x gross multiple on 822 completed investments at June 30, 2026, excluding the 12 investments over A$20 million, which returned 1.54x, per AltStreet's review. The review notes that 'much of the current book is unfinished: investments made in FY2022 to FY2026 are 0% to 37% complete by vintage,' so the completed record covers older, mostly smaller investments.
How large can the selection effect be?: In the worked example below, four concluded cases show an 87.5% return on invested capital after three years, while the full ten-case portfolio ends at 1.35x after six. Same funder, same underwriting; the difference is which cases had finished when the number was reported.
Why do funders report concluded-case returns at all?: Because they are the only returns not based on estimates. Pending cases have no final result, so concluded-case figures are factual about what has happened. The problem is reading them as a forecast for the whole portfolio. Burford itself notes that 'as our older vintages conclude, we may see IRR decrease.'
What should an investor ask for?: Returns on all capital deployed by vintage, including the fair value of pending cases and realized losses; the share of each vintage that has concluded; durations of concluded and pending cases; and, for any headline concluded-case figure, the date and the number of cases behind it.