Market Close vs Resolution
Definition
Market close is the time trading in a contract stops. Resolution, or settlement, is when the outcome is officially determined under the contract's rules and winning positions are paid. Kalshi explains that 'the market's displayed close time may not equal determination time,' and that 'settlement occurs once the official result is confirmed by the source agency.'
Why it matters
Money is locked between the event and the payout, and the wait can be days if data is delayed or the result is disputed. Investors should read when a market determines, not just when it closes, budget for delays in the return, and know the venue's dispute and contact process.
Common misconceptions
- •A closed market is not a settled market.
- •An event that appears over is not determined until the named source confirms it.
- •Disputed results can take days, and some resolve at 50 cents.
- •The label is only a starting point. Investor outcomes usually depend on the governing documents, cash-flow priority, valuation policy, disclosure quality, and manager discretion surrounding the term, not just the shorthand definition used in marketing materials.
Technical details
Timelines from venue documentation
Kalshi: most markets within a few hours, often about 3; longer when waiting on source agencies.
Polymarket undisputed: about 2 hours after proposal.
Polymarket disputed: 24 to 48 hour debate, about 48 hours of voting, 4 to 6 days in total.
How investors apply the term
Investors usually apply this term by tying the definition back to the controlling documents and then asking which cash flows, rights, restrictions, or valuation assumptions it changes. A useful review looks at the term alongside fees, leverage, liquidity, reporting frequency, and manager discretion rather than treating it as a standalone concept.
The practical diligence test is simple: identify who benefits if the assumption is wrong, who has control when conditions change, and what evidence the investor receives after closing. Terms that cannot be reconciled to documents, cash movements, and monitoring data should be treated as marketing shorthand until proven otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
- Why has my market closed but not paid out?
- Because resolution waits for the official result and the venue's process. Kalshi says most markets settle 'within a few hours after the outcome is known (often within about 3 hours),' but 'it can take longer if we're waiting on official data from source agencies,' and some rules set a later determination time. It suggests checking the rules and contacting support if a standard market is still pending after about 12 hours with every condition met.
- How long does Polymarket take?
- About two hours if no one disputes. An outcome is proposed with a bond, typically $750, followed by 'a 2-hour challenge period.' If disputed, a second round follows, and a second dispute goes to a vote of UMA token holders after a 24 to 48 hour debate; Polymarket puts a disputed resolution at '4-6 days total.'
- Can a market be paid at something other than $1 or $0?
- Yes. On Polymarket an 'Unknown/50-50' result means each token 'redeems for $0.50.' Kalshi says some markets 'can resolve to the last fair market price or a non-standard payout like 50-50.'