PredictIt Review 2026: Fees, Withdrawals, and How It Compares to Kalshi
PredictIt charges 10% of the profit on every winning share and, since September 23, 2026, nothing on standard withdrawals from active accounts. Its operator, Aristotle International, holds member cash at a bank the Terms do not name and keeps the interest. Trading is thin outside three 2028 presidential markets, which held 79.6% of the lifetime shares traded in the 150 open markets on November 11, 2026, when 104 markets had yet to trade. PredictIt is a political trading venue, not an investment, and it runs on CFTC staff no-action relief rather than an exchange registration.
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What the data actually shows - TL;DR
What it costs: PredictIt takes 10% of the profit on every winning share and nothing on losing trades. At a 50c price that needs 2.63 points of edge to break even, against 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding; until September 23, 2026 a 5% withdrawal fee raised PredictIt's figure to 5.40.
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Since that date standard withdrawals from active accounts are free. Who holds the money: Aristotle International, Inc., as 'Clearing House', holds member deposits 'on trust' in a pooled account at 'a registered bank' that the Terms do not name, keeps the interest and may pass it to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC), the not-for-profit that holds the market's regulatory relief; AltStreet located no deposit-insurance statement, segregation regime or balance attestation. What the market looks like (PredictIt public API, November 11, 2026): 150 open markets and 533 contracts, 67.0% of contracts last traded at 5c or less, 79.6% of lifetime shares traded sitting in three 2028 presidential markets, and 104 markets yet to trade when AltStreet checked, around noon Eastern.
Front-runners were priced within 1 to 3c of Kalshi and Polymarket; PredictIt's YES ask was above Kalshi's on 39 of 45 matched 2028 candidate contracts in that snapshot, a gap the 1c tick, the 10% fee and the unpaid interest on locked capital leave in place. How it settles: at PredictIt's 'sole discretion', with findings 'final' and no clause for voiding a market and refunding stakes. What it is: a venue for trading $1-face yes/no contracts on political questions, not an investment, operating since November 3, 2014 under CFTC staff no-action relief rather than an exchange registration (the letters, the 2022 to 2025 fight over them and the pending exchange application are in the regulation section). The honest uses for an alternative investor are narrow: hedging a political or policy exposure, capped at $3,500 per contract, and reading front-runner prices as information.
PredictIt's only trading fee, charged on winning shares and not on losers; standard withdrawals from active accounts free since September 23, 2026 (5% before). The relief it runs under is a CFTC staff no-action letter, not an exchange designation.
Aristotle International holds member cash 'on trust' in a pooled account at 'a registered bank'; the Terms do not name the bank, and the Clearing House keeps the interest (Terms 6.iii, read November 11, 2026).
Edge a buyer at 50c needs to break even after PredictIt's 10% profit fee, against 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding; 5.40 before PredictIt dropped its 5% withdrawal fee on September 23, 2026 (derived).
Share of lifetime shares traded in PredictIt's 150 open markets held by the three 2028 presidential markets; 104 markets had yet to trade when AltStreet checked, around noon Eastern on November 11, 2026 (PredictIt public API, AltStreet census).
Matched 2028 candidate contracts where PredictIt's YES ask was above Kalshi's on November 11, 2026, 16:45 UTC, one snapshot; front-runners agreed within 1 to 3c (PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs).
Deadline in House Oversight's September 29, 2026 letter for a staff briefing and seven categories of documents on insider-trading safeguards; no response located as of November 11, 2026.
Market figures are AltStreet's aggregates from PredictIt's public API, from one snapshot on November 11, 2026 at the times stated; prices move and these are not a time series. Source: PredictIt. PredictIt's FAQ says of the API, 'This data is for non-commercial use and PredictIt shall be attributed as the source'; AltStreet attributes PredictIt wherever a figure appears, publishes only the aggregates computed for this review, and does not redistribute the feed. Breakeven figures are derived from the published fee rules (PredictIt's 10% profit fee; Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding) and ignore the bid-ask spread. No PredictIt entity publishes financial statements, user counts or customer-balance attestations.
Quick Verdict
Is this platform right for you?
PredictIt is a twelve-year-old political market that survived the CFTC's attempt to close it and now runs on staff no-action relief held by a not-for-profit and operated by a private company. It is not an investment.
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The costs a member carries beyond the 10% profit fee are structural: cash held by the operator at a bank it does not name, with the interest kept; settlement at the operator's discretion; and thin books outside the 2028 markets, where longshots price above Kalshi and Polymarket. Its uses for an alternative investor are a capped hedge on a political outcome and a read of the odds on front-runners.
Best for
- US investors hedging a specific political or policy outcome within $3,500 per contract.
- Readers who want a second price on leading candidates.
Avoid if
- You need to know which bank holds your cash.
- You need a registered exchange and clearinghouse.
- You are looking for income or a trading edge.
Top strengths
- A court judgment of July 22, 2025 protecting the market against closure on facts known then.
- No fee on losing trades; standard withdrawals free since September 23, 2026.
- Front-runner prices within 1 to 3c of Kalshi and Polymarket on November 11, 2026.
- Rules, rule clarifications and a public market-data API published.
Key limitations
- Staff no-action relief, not an exchange registration; no clearinghouse or customer-funds regime.
- Member cash at an unnamed bank, interest kept by the operator, no attestation.
- Discretionary, final settlement with mid-market rule clarifications and no refund clause.
- Thin books outside three 2028 markets; longshots priced higher than on Kalshi.
- No financial statements from any entity; House Oversight letter unanswered as far as located.
Compare Before Deciding
Where PredictIt fits against alternatives
Use these hooks to pressure-test whether this is the right platform, or whether a nearby alternative matches the job better.
How this compares to Kalshi Review
Kalshi Review
A CFTC-designated exchange with its own clearinghouse and FCM.
How this compares to Polymarket Review
Polymarket Review
An international crypto venue and a CFTC-designated US venue.
How this compares to Kalshi
Kalshi
CFTC-designated exchange, own clearinghouse, named bank.
Quick Answers
What most investors want to know first
The highest-signal facts first: minimums, liquidity reality, K-1 timing, and whether distributions are actually part of the experience.
Liquidity
Two-sided median spread 5c on November 11, 2026, with 190 of 533 contracts quoted on one side only.
K-1 Timing
Not applicable; PredictIt's FAQ says a Form 1099 at $600 of net profit (2026 form and threshold unconfirmed).
Distributions
Settlement review 'usually takes less than 48 hours'; election markets have stayed open for weeks.
Overview
Platform Overview
A concise read on what the platform is, how the structure works, and where the practical friction shows up for real investors.
PredictIt launched on November 3, 2014 as a not-for-profit political market run by Victoria University of Wellington under CFTC staff Letter 14-130 (October 29, 2014), with an $850 per-contract cap and a 5,000-trader limit per contract. Aristotle International, Inc., a Washington, DC company led by John Aristotle Phillips that first did identity checks for the market, came to operate it day to day. In August 2022 CFTC staff withdrew the letter (22-08), and in March 2023 again (23-03), citing Aristotle's role and compensation and out-of-scope contracts; traders and Aristotle sued (Clarke v.
CFTC), the Fifth Circuit enjoined the closure, and on July 22, 2025 the W.D. Tex. court vacated both letters on the CFTC's own motion. Letter 25-20 (July 14, 2025) let the university hand the market to PMRC, raised the cap to the federal individual campaign contribution limit ($3,500 at issue), removed the trader limit, and confined the market to political events not involving war, terrorism or assassination.
Today the Terms name PMRC as 'Provider' and Aristotle as 'Clearing House'. Members must be US persons aged 18 or older; contracts trade between 1c and 99c and pay $1 or nothing; PredictIt charges 10% of profit. A separate company, PredictIt Exchange DCM, Inc., incorporated in Delaware on August 31, 2026 at Aristotle's address, has a pending application to become a CFTC-designated exchange.
The market ran under Victoria University of Wellington's no-action letter until Letter 25-20 of July 14, 2025 allowed the transfer to PMRC, after a three-year fight over the CFTC's attempts to close it that ended with the withdrawal letters vacated. On July 15, 2025 PredictIt announced '$3500 is the new $850' and the end of the 5,000-trader limit; on September 23, 2026 it dropped the 5% withdrawal fee. On November 11, 2026 it listed 150 open markets, concentrated in the 2028 presidential race, and a separate exchange application in its name was pending at the CFTC.
Regulatory basis
CFTC staff no-action relief: Letter 14-130 (October 29, 2014) as amended by 25-20 (July 14, 2025), issued to PMRC; withdrawal letters 22-08 and 23-03 vacated July 22, 2025. Not a designated exchange.
Who runs it
PMRC ('Provider', not-for-profit, 501(c)(3) application pending); Aristotle International, Inc. ('Clearing House', operator and funds holder); ACH through Aeropay.
Who can trade
US persons aged 18 or older; one account each; employees of Aristotle or PredictIt excluded.
Contracts
$1-face yes/no contracts on elections and political questions, 1c tick; $3,500 per participant per contract (the FECA individual limit, as adjusted); no limit on traders.
Fees
10% of profit on winning shares; card deposits 3%; ACH and standard withdrawals free since September 23, 2026 (5% withdrawal fee before); inactive accounts $2.00 a month and 5% on withdrawal.
Member cash
Held 'on trust' by Aristotle in a pooled account at an unnamed bank; interest kept by Aristotle and payable to PMRC; 30-day hold after a deposit.
Settlement
At PredictIt's 'sole discretion', final; no void-and-refund clause; 'usually takes less than 48 hours', with election markets held open for certification, recounts and court rulings.
Market on November 11, 2026
150 open markets, 533 contracts; 67.0% of contracts last traded at 5c or less; median two-sided spread 5c; 79.6% of lifetime shares traded in three 2028 markets (PredictIt public API).
Pending
PredictIt Exchange DCM, Inc. application (CFTC, October 5, 2026); House Oversight letter of September 29, 2026 (response due October 13, 2026; none located).
Enforcement and litigation
No enforcement action or pending suit naming PredictIt, PMRC or Aristotle International located in CFTC, SEC and federal court records searched November 11, 2026.
Visual Summary
Breakeven probability for a YES buyer holding to settlement
Derived from the published fee rules: PredictIt p / [1 - 0.10(1 - p)]; PredictIt before September 23, 2026 adds the 5% withdrawal fee on proceeds; Kalshi standard taker fee 0.07 x p x (1 - p) paid at entry, before rounding (Kalshi rounds the fee up to the cent per order). Edge is the breakeven minus the price, in percentage points. Spreads ignored.
10c
PredictIt now
10.99%
Edge (pts)
0.99
PredictIt before Sept 23, 2026
11.57%
Edge (pts)
1.57
Kalshi taker
10.63%
Edge (pts)
0.63
25c
PredictIt now
27.03%
Edge (pts)
2.03
PredictIt before Sept 23, 2026
28.45%
Edge (pts)
3.45
Kalshi taker
26.31%
Edge (pts)
1.31
50c
PredictIt now
52.63%
Edge (pts)
2.63
PredictIt before Sept 23, 2026
55.40%
Edge (pts)
5.40
Kalshi taker
51.75%
Edge (pts)
1.75
75c
PredictIt now
76.92%
Edge (pts)
1.92
PredictIt before Sept 23, 2026
80.97%
Edge (pts)
5.97
Kalshi taker
76.31%
Edge (pts)
1.31
90c
PredictIt now
90.91%
Edge (pts)
0.91
PredictIt before Sept 23, 2026
95.69%
Edge (pts)
5.69
Kalshi taker
90.63%
Edge (pts)
0.63
Investor Operations
The practical questions investors actually care about: when tax documents arrive, how cash distributions work, and whether capital can be exited before the underlying asset is sold.
Tax Documents
K-1 Timing
What to expect
Not applicable; PredictIt's FAQ says a Form 1099 at $600 of net profit (2026 form and threshold unconfirmed).
Cash Flow
Distributions
Frequency
None; contracts pay $1 or $0 at settlement.
Timing
Settlement review 'usually takes less than 48 hours'; election markets have stayed open for weeks.
Consistency
No reversed resolution located; documented delays and mid-market rule clarifications.
Liquidity
Exit Reality
Holding period
None on positions; a 30-day hold on withdrawals after a deposit.
Exit options
- Sell into the order book.
- Hold to settlement.
- Withdraw by ACH or check.
Secondary market
Two-sided median spread 5c on November 11, 2026, with 190 of 533 contracts quoted on one side only.
Investment Structures
PredictIt offers no investments. Its products are yes/no contracts on political events that pay $1 or nothing at settlement and trade between 1c and 99c against other members. Nothing pays yield or represents a claim on an asset; every dollar won is another member's dollar lost, less PredictIt's 10% fee on profit. The defensible uses for an alternative investor are hedging a specific political or policy exposure within the $3,500 per-contract cap and reading the prices as information.
- Single-contract markets: one yes/no question, such as whether a bill passes or an official leaves office.
- Linked multi-contract markets: one contract per listed outcome; PredictIt debits only the worst-case loss across the market, so a basket of NO positions uses less cash.
- Cap: $3,500 per participant per contract, tied to the FECA individual contribution limit, with no stated per-market cap.
- Scope: political events, not involving war, terrorism or assassination (Letter 25-20).
Risk
Risk Structure
This is where the marketplace pitch gives way to the actual operating reality: delayed exits, limited disclosure, fee drag, and path-dependent outcomes.
Legal basis
Staff no-action relief that staff can 'condition further, modify, suspend, terminate'; protected by the July 22, 2025 injunction against action based on facts known by that date.
Custody
A private operator holds pooled member cash 'on trust' at an unnamed bank, keeps the interest and caps its liability at the ledger balance; no clearinghouse or attestation.
Settlement
Discretionary and final, with rule clarifications added mid-market and no void-and-refund clause.
Liquidity
Concentrated in three 2028 markets; 190 of 533 contracts one-sided and 104 of 150 markets yet to trade when AltStreet checked around noon Eastern on November 11, 2026.
Pricing
Front-runners in line with Kalshi and Polymarket in the November 11, 2026 snapshot; longshots higher that day, and multi-outcome books often above $1.
Relief can change
The market's legal basis is a staff letter, not a registration.
Why it matters
New facts after July 22, 2025, or a new staff position, could change the conditions or the market.
Mitigation / verification
Watch the CFTC staff letter index and the PredictIt Exchange DCM application.
Operator-held cash
Member cash sits in a pooled account at an unnamed bank, held by Aristotle.
Why it matters
Without a named bank, insurance statement or attestation, members rely on the trust wording and Aristotle's solvency.
Mitigation / verification
Keep balances small and withdraw winnings; ask PredictIt to name the bank.
Discretionary settlement
PredictIt interprets its own rules and its decision is final.
Why it matters
Delays of weeks and clarifications added mid-market have happened, and arbitration is the only route.
Mitigation / verification
Read the full rule and its supplementary comments before trading, and check that it names a source.
Thin books
Outside the 2028 markets, many contracts are one-sided or quoted 1c by 99c.
Why it matters
A hedge or an exit may not fill near the last price.
Mitigation / verification
Check both sides of the book at the intended size before trading.
ASRisk signals to watch
- A new CFTC staff letter amending 14-130 or 25-20, or action on the PredictIt Exchange DCM application.
- A House Oversight follow-up letter, hearing or subpoena.
- The FEC's 2027 contribution-limit adjustment, which would change the per-contract cap.
- Supplementary comments on open markets, such as 9087, that change what a contract means.
- Any CFTC staff view on markets at the edge of Letter 25-20's 'political events' scope, such as the Pope, Stephen A. Smith, sports-contract litigation and OPEC markets open on November 11, 2026.
- Changes to the Terms' custody clauses or the naming of a bank.
Regulatory & Legal Posture
Security Status
Event contracts listed under CFTC staff no-action relief; not securities, not traded on a designated contract market, and not cleared by a registered clearinghouse.
Letter 14-130 (2014) and Letter 25-20 (2025) set the conditions. Staff noted in 2014 that the contracts 'could be characterized as swaps'. The Fifth Circuit's 2023 opinion treated the letter as a license for APA purposes, and the W.D.
Tex. judgment of July 22, 2025 vacated the 2022 and 2023 withdrawals. The CFTC's dispute with PredictIt was a staff withdrawal, not an enforcement case. AltStreet located no CFTC or SEC enforcement action and no pending federal suit naming PredictIt, PMRC or Aristotle International (November 11, 2026); state court and Delaware Chancery dockets were not searched, and NFA BASIC was not completed.
- The record, in order. Letter 14-130 (October 29, 2014): CFTC staff tell Victoria University of Wellington they will not recommend enforcement against a not-for-profit political market with an $850 per-contract cap and 5,000 traders per contract; staff retain 'the authority to condition further, modify, suspend, terminate or otherwise restrict' the relief and render no opinion on state law. Letter 22-08 (August 4, 2022) withdraws it, citing Aristotle's role and compensation and out-of-scope contracts; Letter 23-03 (March 2023) does so again. Clarke v. CFTC: traders and Aristotle sue; the Fifth Circuit enjoins the closure and on July 21, 2023 treats the letter as a 'license' that cannot be withdrawn arbitrarily (one dissent). Letter 25-20 (July 14, 2025) amends 14-130: the market passes to PMRC, the cap becomes the FECA individual contribution limit ($3,500 at issue, adjusted every two years), the trader limit ends, scope is political events not involving war, terrorism or assassination, PMRC must comply with staff requests, and the relief does not transfer by sale. July 22, 2025: the W.D. Tex. court vacates both withdrawal letters on the CFTC's own motion and permanently enjoins the CFTC from closing the market or sanctioning its operators 'based on events or facts or features of the PredictIt Market known to the Commission prior to or on the date of this Order'. October 5, 2026: the CFTC lists an application by PredictIt Exchange DCM, Inc. as pending.
- What the relief is not: a designation as a contract market with core principles, a registered clearinghouse, CFTC customer-funds segregation, or an NFA-registered intermediary. The 2025 injunction covers facts known by July 22, 2025, not new ones.
- Letter 25-20 conditions: PMRC complies with 14-130 and 25-20, complies with staff requests, and cannot transfer the relief by sale.
- Scope, and the markets at its edge. Letter 25-20 restricts the market to 'political events, such as contracts related to the outcomes of elections and other significant political questions not involving war, terrorism, or assassination', with an illustrative list: nominations, confirmations and departures of officials; court decisions 'not related to criminal proceedings'; legislative actions; regulations, executive orders and agency actions; international agreements 'not involving war'; and 'official actions and declarations of international agencies'. Of the 150 markets open on November 11, 2026, seven sit at the edge of that list rather than inside it: whether the Pope excommunicates JD Vance before 2028 (8705), whether the Pope visits Cuba in 2026 (8853), whether Trump meets Pope Leo in 2026 (8707), whether Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential run before 2028 (8599), whether the Ninth Circuit allows Kalshi's sports contracts in 2026 (8720), whether the Supreme Court grants certiorari in a sports prediction market case in 2026 (8957), and whether another country announces it is leaving OPEC in 2026 (8767). AltStreet found no war, terrorism or assassination market among the 150. Whether these seven fit is a question for CFTC staff, and the record located does not show staff addressing them; the 2022 withdrawal letter cited out-of-scope contracts as one ground, and House Oversight's September 29, 2026 letter asks for the 'criteria used to determine whether a proposed contract falls within the scope of permissible "political events"'. The 'economic indicator' relief in Letter 14-130, for academic traders only, is unchanged.
- State actions: none against PredictIt located; Connecticut's September 2026 cease-and-desist list ends with 'Underdog Predict', which refers to Underdog's product, not PredictIt.
- Complaints: no CFPB complaints for PredictIt or Aristotle; two BBB complaints in three years (read November 11, 2026).
Disclosure Quality
Terms, market rules and a public API are published; the bank, PMRC's board, the PMRC-Aristotle economics and any financial statements are not, and the site's account of its regulatory basis differs from the CFTC letters on four points.
Custody Model
Aristotle International holds member deposits 'on trust' in a pooled Clearing Account at an unnamed registered bank, with a ledger per member; interest belongs to Aristotle and may be paid to PMRC.
Regulatory Backing
None named: no CFTC customer-funds segregation, FDIC pass-through statement, SIPC or attestation.
Tax Treatment
Reporting
PredictIt's FAQ says it issues a Form 1099 to US traders with net profit of $600 or more in a calendar year. The IRS raised the threshold for certain information-reporting payments to $2,000 for 2026; which form and threshold PredictIt will apply for 2026 is unconfirmed.
Annual per the FAQ; net profit is gross profits less losses and trading fees.
Income Character
Questions to put to a tax adviser
How gains on event contracts traded under no-action relief are characterized (ordinary income, gambling or another treatment) is not settled; PredictIt's FAQ describes the reporting, not the character.
Limitation
AltStreet is not a tax adviser.
Account Suitability
Taxable
The only practical account type.
Roth IRA
Not applicable.
Traditional IRA
Not applicable.
HSA
Not applicable.
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AltStreet Data Layer
What the data actually shows
AltStreet's aggregates from PredictIt's public API on November 11, 2026, against Kalshi and Polymarket at the same moment.
Volume sits in three markets
The three 2028 presidential markets hold 79.6% of the 8,787,216 lifetime shares traded in PredictIt's 150 open markets; the median market has traded 599 shares, and 104 markets had yet to trade when AltStreet checked, around noon Eastern on November 11.
What this means
Outside the 2028 race, a hedge or an exit may not find the other side.
Books above $1
In 17 actively quoted multi-contract markets the best YES asks summed to a median $1.02, with the 2028 Democratic nomination at $1.17 across 17 contracts.
What this means
Buying every outcome costs more than the $1 it pays, before the 10% fee.
Longshots priced higher
PredictIt's YES ask was above Kalshi's on 39 of 45 matched 2028 candidate contracts and above Polymarket's on 40; front-runners agreed within 1 to 3c.
What this means
Front-runner prices are usable as information; longshot prices were higher on PredictIt in this snapshot.
Correcting the gap barely pays (scenario)
Buying NO on Beshear for the Democratic nomination at the 92c ask, with Kalshi's midpoint taken as the probability, yields about 2.8% expected after the fee, an illustrative $98 at the $3,500 cap, over about 21 months with no interest paid.
What this means
The fee, the 1c tick and the unpaid float keep the longshot gap open.
Data as of 2026-11-11 . AltStreet review evidence layer . Public-source analysis
Full datasetDecision Fit
Investor Fit
Who this works for, who it does not, and what level of patience and complexity tolerance the platform really demands.
Investors hedging a specific political or policy outcome
A defined-loss contract on an election or policy outcome can offset a real exposure, but $3,500 per contract bought a payout of about $9,600 after the fee at a 34c price on November 11, 2026, and outside the 2028 markets the books are thin.
Readers using prices as information
Front-runner prices matched Kalshi and Polymarket within 1 to 3c on November 11, 2026; longshots were priced higher on PredictIt in that snapshot.
Traders looking for an edge
The 10% fee requires about 2.63 points of edge at 50c, and in an illustrative scenario the visible longshot gap pays about 1.6% a year at the cap after the fee and unpaid interest.
Anyone seeking income or an investment
Nothing on PredictIt produces income; contracts transfer money between members, less fees.
Tradeoffs
Key Tradeoffs
The attraction of pre-IPO access is real, but every benefit comes bundled with a corresponding liquidity, transparency, or pricing cost.
Legal basis
The basis is a staff letter, not an exchange registration with a clearinghouse and customer-funds rules.
Cost
10% of every profit, and interest on member cash kept by the operator.
Prices
Longshots higher and many books one-sided outside the 2028 markets.
Avoid
Who This Is Not For
This section should be read as a filter, not an afterthought. If you need income, simplicity, or near-term access to capital, the structure is working against you.
Anyone treating PredictIt as an investment
Contracts are zero-sum positions against other members, less a 10% fee on profit.
Members who need to know where their cash is held
The Terms do not name the bank, and no insurance statement or attestation was located.
Hedgers who need size
The cap is $3,500 per contract, and depth outside the 2028 markets is thin.
Non-US persons
Participation is limited to US persons.
Editorial View
AltStreet Perspective
The compressed version of the review: what matters, what marketing tends to obscure, and how we would frame the platform for a serious allocator.
Verdict
PredictIt's prices on the 2028 front-runners are in line with the regulated venues; what differs is the structure around them, a staff letter instead of a registration, an operator holding the cash instead of a clearinghouse, and settlement at the operator's discretion.
Positioning
Beside Kalshi, a CFTC-designated exchange with its own clearinghouse, a named bank and monthly FCM statements, PredictIt discloses less about where member cash sits and how it is run, and charges more on a winning trade. Beside Polymarket, which settled with the CFTC in 2022, AltStreet located no enforcement action against PredictIt, but PredictIt has no registered US venue of its own yet. A decision on the pending PredictIt Exchange DCM application would change this review.
The Bottom Line
A political market with prices in line on the front-runners, run under a staff letter by an operator that holds the cash at an unnamed bank: a capped hedge, not an investment.
Action
Next Steps
If you still want to engage after reading the review, these are the practical next moves that reduce avoidable mistakes.
Read the full rule and the supplementary comments of any market before trading, and check that it names a settlement source.
Check both sides of the order book at your intended size; outside the 2028 markets many contracts are one-sided.
Compute the breakeven after the 10% profit fee before trading: p / [1 - 0.10(1 - p)].
Keep balances small and withdraw winnings; the bank is not named and the interest goes to the operator.
Watch the CFTC listing for the PredictIt Exchange DCM application and any new staff letter.
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Deal Intelligence →Appendix
Sources, Disclosures, and Supporting Context
The lower section is structured like a report appendix: relationship context first, adjacent reading second, and evidence last.
Report Appendix
Disclosure
Relationship and compensation context
+
Report Appendix
Disclosure
Relationship and compensation context
Report Appendix
Related Resources
Adjacent platform comparisons, frameworks, and category links
+
Report Appendix
Related Resources
Adjacent platform comparisons, frameworks, and category links
Further Reading
Related Resources
Adjacent frameworks and reviews that help place the platform in a broader allocation or due-diligence context.
Explore Asset Class
Prediction Markets: $1-face political event contractsDeep Dive Guide
Prediction Markets & Event Contracts Category HubFrameworks
- ->Prediction Markets: How Event Trading Works (reference)
- ->Implied Probability and Breakeven After Fees (reference)
- ->Contract Specifications: Which Rules to Read (reference)
- ->Regulated vs Offshore Prediction Markets (reference)
- ->Hedging with Event Contracts (reference)
- ->Position Limits (reference)
- ->Capital Lock-Up in Event Contracts (reference)
- ->Prediction Market Resolution (reference)
- ->Kalshi Review (CFTC-designated exchange)
- ->Polymarket Review (international venue and CFTC-designated US venue)
- ->Polymarket vs Kalshi: The Full Comparison Guide
Similar Platform Reviews
- Kalshi Review
A CFTC-designated exchange with its own clearinghouse and FCM.
- Polymarket Review
An international crypto venue and a CFTC-designated US venue.
Report Appendix
Evidence & Methodology
20 cited passages on file; sources, scope, and how the review was assembled
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Report Appendix
Evidence & Methodology
20 cited passages on file; sources, scope, and how the review was assembled
Evidence on file
20 supporting passages on file for PredictIt and its offerings from 14 source documents, 6 discrepancies flagged. Each passage records the metric it supports, the value read from the document, the page, and the verbatim text where the document has it. Terminal subscribers read the passages; open them in the terminal.
- Cited passages
- 20
- Source documents
- 14
- Analyst verified
- 0
- Discrepancies flagged
- 6
ASReview Evidence
Methodology
CFTC letters, orders and listings; the Fifth Circuit and W.D. Tex. records; EDGAR; the House Oversight letter; PredictIt's Terms, Privacy Policy, FAQ, help, Learn, Research and announcement pages through the site's content endpoints; market rules and comments through the public API; one market-data snapshot, a contract-statistics census and a cross-venue snapshot on November 11, 2026 (source: PredictIt, attributed per its FAQ; aggregates only); seven research papers; CFPB and BBB complaint records.
Scope
The predictit.org market, its regulatory basis, custody, fees, settlement and market data. The Underdog sale and the Delaware Chancery suit in outline only; state courts, the Chancery docket and NFA BASIC not searched.
Key Findings
- *Terms: 'PredictIt is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with' the CFTC. Letter 25-20: PMRC 'shall comply with all requests from CFTC staff'.
- *Terms: PMRC is 'a body of outside academic advisors'. Letter 25-20: 'a US-based not-for-profit corporation that has applied to the IRS for recognition' under 501(c)(3).
- *Terms: a limit 'of $3,500'. Letter 25-20: the FECA limit 'as that limit is adjusted going forward'.
- *Market 9087 rule, rechecked November 11, 2026 17:05 UTC: a single-state race call whose rule refers to 'the winner of U.S. Senate control'.
Primary Source Pages
Comparable Platforms
- Kalshi
CFTC-designated exchange, own clearinghouse, named bank.
- Polymarket
International venue plus a CFTC-designated US venue.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
High-intent search questions answered directly, without making users hunt through the full review.
Is PredictIt legal?
PredictIt operates under CFTC staff no-action relief (Letter 14-130 of 2014 as amended by Letter 25-20 of July 14, 2025), and a federal court vacated the CFTC's 2022 and 2023 attempts to withdraw it on July 22, 2025. That relief is a staff position that enforcement will not be recommended if conditions are met, not a registration as an exchange, and it does not address state law. AltStreet located no enforcement action or pending suit naming PredictIt as of November 11, 2026.
Is PredictIt regulated by the CFTC?
Not in the way Kalshi is. PredictIt's Terms say it 'is not regulated by, nor are its operators registered with' the CFTC. It runs under conditions set by CFTC staff (a $3,500 per-contract cap tied to the federal contribution limit, political events only, compliance with staff requests), but it is not a designated exchange and has no registered clearinghouse. A separate company, PredictIt Exchange DCM, Inc., applied to become a designated exchange; the application was listed as pending on October 5, 2026.
Who holds my money on PredictIt, and is it FDIC insured?
Aristotle International holds deposits 'on trust' in a pooled 'Clearing Account' at 'a registered bank', with a separate ledger for each member. The Terms do not name the bank, and AltStreet located no statement on deposit insurance and no attestation of balances. The interest on the account belongs to Aristotle, which may pay it to PMRC. Withdrawals wait 30 days after a deposit.
What are PredictIt's fees?
10% of profit on any share sold above cost or redeemed at $1, and nothing on losing trades. Card deposits cost 3%. Since September 23, 2026, ACH deposits and standard withdrawals are free; before that PredictIt took 5% of every withdrawal. Inactive accounts pay $2.00 a month and 5% on withdrawal. At a 50c price the 10% fee requires 2.63 points of edge to break even, against 1.75 on Kalshi's standard taker fee, before rounding (derived; spreads ignored).
What is the PredictIt $3,500 limit?
The most one person can invest in any one contract. Letter 25-20 sets it at the federal individual campaign contribution limit 'as that limit is adjusted going forward', $3,500 at issue in July 2025; the FEC adjusts that limit every two years. The limit is per contract, so a member can hold up to $3,500 in each contract of a multi-contract market. Before July 2025 it was $850.
Can you make money on PredictIt?
Some members do, but it is a zero-sum market: every winner is matched by a loser, and PredictIt takes 10% of each profit. Research on 2016 to 2022 data found persistent overpricing of longshots and of multi-outcome markets, and a more recent small sample found none. Correcting a gap pays little in any case: in a scenario on November 11, 2026, buying NO on a longshot at PredictIt's ask, with Kalshi's midpoint taken as the probability, offered about 2.8% expected over about 21 months at the $3,500 cap, with no interest on the cash.
How long does PredictIt take to settle a market?
PredictIt says review 'usually takes less than 48 hours', but election markets wait for certification, recounts and court rulings at PredictIt's discretion. The 2020 Iowa caucus market traded until April 14, 2020, 71 days after the caucus; the 2020 presidential market until December 18, 2020; the 2024 candidate market until December 17, 2024. PredictIt's decision is final, and disputes go to arbitration.
Did Underdog buy PredictIt?
The CFTC record shows that Aristotle's separate exchange, Aristotle Exchange DCM and Aristotle Exchange DCO, now carries the Underdog name; the clearinghouse is listed as 'Underdog Clearinghouse, Inc.', 'Formerly known as Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc.'. That exchange was never the predictit.org market, which still runs under the no-action relief held by PMRC. The terms of the Underdog sale appear only in press reports.
PredictIt vs Kalshi: what is the difference?
Kalshi is a CFTC-designated exchange with its own registered clearinghouse, a named bank and monthly FCM statements, and charges a taker fee on entry. PredictIt runs under staff no-action relief, its operator holds member cash at an unnamed bank, it charges 10% of profit on winners, and it caps each contract at $3,500. On November 11, 2026 their prices on the 2028 front-runners were within 1 to 3c; PredictIt's longshots were higher on 39 of 45 matched contracts.
How are PredictIt winnings taxed?
PredictIt's FAQ says it issues a Form 1099 to US traders with net profit of $600 or more in a calendar year, computed as gross profits less losses and trading fees. The IRS raised the threshold for certain information-reporting payments to $2,000 for 2026, and PredictIt has not said which form or threshold it will apply for 2026. How the gains are characterized is a question for a tax adviser.
Update History
What's changed in this PredictIt review
New data, new findings, corrections, and confirmations as they emerge. Most recent updates appear first.
- Structural
Title and first screen reordered around fees, withdrawals, custody and market depth; CFTC letter history moved to the regulation section. View section
- Correction
Longshot finding limited to the November 11, 2026 snapshot, with bids and asks for five matched contracts and the NO-side sum labeled an illustrative scenario. View section
- Correction
Card-fee waiver wording per the September 23, 2026 announcement; $600 Form 1099 threshold attributed to PredictIt's FAQ, 2026 practice unconfirmed. View section
- New finding
Seven of the 150 open markets on November 11, 2026 (Pope, Stephen A. Smith, sports-contract litigation, OPEC) sit at the edge of Letter 25-20's 'political events' scope; no staff view located. View section
- Confirmed
Market data attributed to PredictIt in its FAQ's words; aggregates only, feed not redistributed. View section